US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2004-06 to 2006-11
Replay the U.S. national Case-Shiller index from June 2004 to November 2006 across 30 monthly bars, watching the close climb from 150.52 to 183.63. You will step through each bar, navigate 6 decision points, and receive a coach review in this simulated training environment.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-06 to 2006-11 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.5% with a 22.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.5%
- Max run-up
- +22.6%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scene opens on the U.S. national housing market in June 2004, just as the Case-Shiller index begins a sustained climb that would define the final act of America's great housing bubble. Across 30 monthly bars spanning through November 2006, participants navigate a market that had already been rising for years. Six decision points punctuate the replay, two of them marked as critical moments where positioning and conviction would be tested. The stakes are clear: understanding how narratives build, persist, and eventually unwind.
What unfolds is a remarkably steady advance. The index rises from 150.52 to 183.63, delivering a 22.0% gain over the 30-month window. Notably, the maximum drawdown measures just 0.5%, and the largest single monthly move amounts to only 1.6%. These are not the statistics of a volatile market in crisis—they are the quiet, grinding characteristics of a bubble in its most confident phase, when skeptics have been repeatedly wrong and consensus has hardened around a single thesis.
The educational value lies in confronting the psychology of sustained, low-volatility gains. Six decision points force participants to examine whether they would hold, add to, or reduce exposure as prices climbed steadily without meaningful pullbacks. Two critical moments test whether participants recognize the accumulating risk embedded in apparent stability. This replay teaches that low volatility can itself become a risk signal, and that the absence of fear is not the same as the presence of safety.