US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2004-04 to 2006-09
Replay 30 monthly bars of the U.S. national Case-Shiller index from 2004-04 to 2006-09, watching the close climb 26.0% to 184.2. Step into 6 decision points, with AI coach review after each simulated day.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-04 to 2006-09 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.2% with a 26.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.2%
- Max run-up
- +26.3%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay centers on the U.S. national Case-Shiller home price index across the 2000s, capturing the mature phase of the housing boom from April 2004 through September 2006. Thirty monthly bars trace a relentless climb as loose lending standards and speculative fervor pushed prices to unsustainable heights. Participants enter a market where the prevailing narrative promised endless appreciation, confronting the challenge of maintaining discipline when drawdowns barely registered and every dip seemed like a buying opportunity.
The index rose from 146.18 to 184.2, a gain of 26.0% over thirty months. Notably, the maximum drawdown during this entire period was only 0.2%, and the largest single monthly move reached just 1.6%. These statistics reveal an extraordinarily smooth upward trajectory with virtually no meaningful retracements to test conviction, creating an environment where risk management principles were constantly being challenged.
The scenario presents six decision points, two marked critical, training participants to maintain analytical discipline during seemingly stable markets. The educational value lies in confronting the psychological temptation to abandon process when the price action offers no apparent reasons for caution. History shows that benign-looking markets often breed the most dangerous complacency, and this replay forces a reckoning with confirmation bias, herding behavior, and the insidious comfort of rising prices.
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