China National (Real Estate Climate Index, 1998+) Historical Replay: 2004-05 to 2006-10
Replay China's national real-estate climate index across 30 monthly bars from May 2004, watching sentiment cool after the May 2005 round-one policy tightening. You make decisions bar by bar through six prompts, then receive an AI coach review of your simulated training choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-05 to 2006-10 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 5.0% with a 2.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −5.0%
- Max run-up
- +2.9%
- Largest single-month move
- −2.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
China's national real-estate climate index tracks the pulse of the country's property market across the 2000s, a period when housing became both an economic engine and a social flashpoint. From May 2004, the scenario presents 30 monthly bars spanning a pivotal era when Beijing began tightening regulation to cool overheating prices. Participants must navigate six decision points—including two critical junctures—amid mounting policy uncertainty and shifting market sentiment.
The index closed the period at 103.4, down 2.4% from its 105.92 starting level. The market weathered a maximum drawdown of 5.0% while enduring its largest single-bar move of 2.1%. These figures reflect a measured correction rather than a collapse, illustrating how policy signals can moderate market behavior without triggering severe disruption.
This replay teaches that patience and probabilistic thinking matter more than prediction. The modest overall decline alongside visible drawdowns challenges participants to manage risk dynamically, resist anchoring on peak prices, and distinguish between noise and signal. Navigating six decision points across shifting conditions demands discipline to avoid overreacting to short-term volatility while maintaining strategic perspective on longer-term policy trajectories.
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