Rough Rice Historical Replay: 2018-11 to 2019-05
Replay 122 daily bars of rough rice from Nov 2018 to May 2019, navigating a 10.2% max drawdown and 21 policy-driven decision points. Step through each session, face critical choices, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated decisions.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2018-11 to 2019-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 180 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 10.2% and a 14.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −10.2%
- Max run-up
- +14.2%
- Duration
- 180 days
- Largest single-day move
- +2.6%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The rough rice market entered November 2018 facing a complex macroeconomic environment. The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory was shifting, and currency markets were responding to evolving interest rate expectations. Over the following six months, rough rice traders would confront 21 policy-driven decision points, with 7 marked as critical moments where directional conviction was essential. The decade of the 2010s had already shown how policy uncertainty could amplify commodity volatility, and this period promised to test both analytical frameworks and risk discipline.
The closing price shifted from 10.9 to 10.72, a net decline of 1.7% across 122 daily bars. Yet the headline number obscured a turbulent journey: the market endured a maximum drawdown of 10.2%, and single sessions produced moves as large as 2.6%. These figures reveal a market in which direction was contested and momentum reversed frequently. A trader entering with a directional bias faced repeated challenges to that thesis, with the largest single-bar move representing nearly a quarter of the total drawdown experienced during the period.
This replay teaches that process matters more than prediction when navigating extended uncertainty. The 10.2% drawdown reminds practitioners that adverse runs will occur, and surviving them requires disciplined position sizing and pre-defined exit logic. The 21 decision points, especially the 7 critical ones, simulate real pressure to either update a thesis or maintain conviction. Psychology becomes the differentiator: emotional discipline under a 10.2% equity trough, without abandoning sound risk management, separates effective decision training from guesswork.
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