Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2020-05 to 2020-08
Replay 64 daily bars of US Hot-Rolled Coil from May 7 to August 6, 2020, when prices climbed 18.3% from 3305 to 3910. Step through each decision point, face 4 critical choices, and receive an AI coach review in a simulated, educational environment.
64 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2020-05 to 2020-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 91 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 2.7% and a 18.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −2.7%
- Max run-up
- +18.6%
- Duration
- 91 days
- Largest single-day move
- +2.8%
- Bars
- 64 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In May 2020, the US hot-rolled coil market entered a critical recovery phase after the spring lockdowns disrupted global industrial activity. Over the following months, steel demand was expected to rebound as manufacturers resumed operations and infrastructure projects gained momentum. This replay spans 64 daily bars from May 7 to August 6, 2020, placing participants in the position of navigating an uncertain reopening trade with macroeconomic signals pointing in multiple directions.
Prices climbed steadily from 3305 to 3910, delivering an 18.3% gain over the period. The advance was not linear; the market experienced a maximum drawdown of just 2.7% and its largest single-bar move was 2.8%, indicating relatively contained volatility for a commodities boom. Participants faced 11 decision points across the replay, with 4 designated as critical junctures where directional conviction and position sizing would determine whether the move was captured or missed.
This scenario tests the ability to maintain conviction during a sustained uptrend while managing risk across its inevitable pullbacks. The low drawdown environment rewards those with clear entry rules and the discipline to hold through noise, while the occasional 2.8% single-bar swings demand psychological resilience and sizing awareness. Trainees learn that profitable boom scenarios require not just directional accuracy but also a repeatable process for scaling positions and controlling exposure at each of the 11 inflection points.
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