Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2020-03 to 2020-06
Replay 58 trading days from 2020-03-25 to 2020-06-18 and navigate a 9.5% drawdown in hot-rolled coil markets. Step through daily decisions, tackle 11 decision points including 4 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review in this simulated educational environment.
58 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2020-03 to 2020-06 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 85 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 9.5% and a 20.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −9.5%
- Max run-up
- +20.7%
- Duration
- 85 days
- Largest single-day move
- −6.9%
- Bars
- 58 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In March 2020, the global pandemic was reshaping industrial demand, and hot-rolled coil markets faced extraordinary uncertainty. This replay spans 58 trading days from 2020-03-25 to 2020-06-18, placing participants directly into a market where supply chains were disrupted and demand signals were conflicting. Participants must navigate this volatile environment while managing exposure across the ferrous commodities sector.
The data reveals a complex recovery pattern: prices moved from 3314 to 3620, representing a 9.2% gain over the period. However, this outcome did not come without turbulence—the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 9.5% at its worst point, and participants had to weather a largest single-bar move of 6.9%. The interval contained 11 decision points, of which 4 were critical junctures that could significantly alter portfolio outcomes.
This scenario trains participants to maintain disciplined process when fundamentals are obscured by panic and uncertainty. The pandemic context illustrates how systemic shocks create asymmetric risk environments where conventional analysis may fail. Participants learn to balance risk management during a 9.5% drawdown against the need to preserve capital for eventual recovery. The psychological dimension—staying objective when market narratives shift daily—proves as important as any technical signal in this educational environment.
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