Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2020-02 to 2020-05
Replay 64 daily bars of hot-rolled coil from February to May 2020, when pandemic volatility drove a 15.2% drawdown. Walk through 11 decision points, four of them critical, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
64 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2020-02 to 2020-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 95 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 15.2% and a 11.0% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −15.2%
- Max run-up
- +11.0%
- Duration
- 95 days
- Largest single-day move
- −6.9%
- Bars
- 64 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Hot-rolled coil steel is the backbone of manufacturing, and in early 2020 the market faced a once-in-a-generation shock. From February 6 to May 11, 64 daily bars captured a period when pandemic uncertainty sent industrial commodities into freefall. The scenario recreates the brutal volatility that forced traders to make decisions under extreme pressure, with supply chains fracturing and demand signals turning contradictory day after day.
The headline numbers reveal a deceptive finish: the market closed at 3329, barely 0.7% above the starting 3307. But that serene net figure conceals a violent journey. The 15.2% maximum drawdown means the market fell sharply before recovering, while the 6.9% largest single-bar move shows how quickly sentiment could shift in either direction. Across 11 decision points, four critical moments demanded traders either protect capital or risk compounding losses.
This replay teaches that survival precedes profit. The gap between the brutal drawdown and the flat net return illustrates how easily fear-driven selling destroys positions before recovery arrives. Managing risk at the 6.9% volatility peaks requires discipline that most traders find impossible to maintain when real capital is at stake. The four critical decision points simulate those moments when panic whispers to exit and greed whispers to add—testing whether a trader's process can override psychology. Completing this replay builds the muscle memory to endure drawdowns without abandoning sound strategy.
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