Iron Ore Historical Replay: 2018-11 to 2019-05
Replay 116 days of iron ore volatility from November 2018 through May 2019, watching the 25.1% close-to-close climb and 13.7% drawdown unfold. Step through twenty decision points day by day, weigh policy-driven moves, and receive an AI coach review of each simulated call.
116 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2018-11 to 2019-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 13.7% and a 51.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −13.7%
- Max run-up
- +51.8%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- −9.2%
- Bars
- 116 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Iron ore found itself at the crossroads of monetary policy uncertainty and raw material demand expectations during the final months of 2018 and into spring 2019. Over 116 trading days from November 19, 2018 through May 15, 2019, participants navigated a landscape shaped by the Federal Reserve's pivot toward accommodation, a shift that reverberated across commodity markets. This period of the 2010s tested the ability to process policy signals, manage directional exposure, and survive intraday swings without abandoning disciplined risk management.
The close-to-close trajectory showed a meaningful advance, with iron ore rising from 527.5 to 660, representing a 25.1% gain over the span. Yet the path proved anything but linear—a maximum drawdown of 13.7% underscored the vulnerability of positions during uncertain stretches, while the largest single trading day delivered a 9.2% move that would have tested any portfolio's stress thresholds. Volatility was not an abstraction but a lived experience requiring constant reassessment.
This replay places participants face-to-face with 20 decision points, 7 of which carry critical weight for the outcome. The core lesson transcends any single trade: successful navigation of policy-driven markets demands a repeatable process, strict risk controls, and psychological resilience when prices swing violently. Emotional discipline—staying committed to methodology rather than reacting to short-term noise—ultimately separates learning from loss in volatile environments.
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