Rebar Historical Replay: 2015-07 to 2015-12
Replay 108 daily bars of Chinese rebar from July to December 2015 as the market fell 21.4% into historic lows. Step through 19 decision points, including 7 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
108 daily bars · 19 decision points · 2015-07 to 2015-12 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 159 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 23.4% and a 11.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −23.4%
- Max run-up
- +11.7%
- Duration
- 159 days
- Largest single-day move
- +6.0%
- Bars
- 108 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 19
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In mid-2015, China's ferrous market faced mounting pressure as the country's equity bubble burst and growth concerns mounted. The real estate sector showed weakness, infrastructure spending slowed, and August brought a surprise RMB devaluation that rattled commodity markets globally. For participants holding rebar positions, the period presented a sustained downtrend that tested conviction and risk management alike.
The replay captures 108 daily bars of this descent, with rebar falling 21.4% from 2124 to 1670 over the second half of 2015. The market hit maximum drawdown of 23.4%, with volatility punctuating the decline through a largest single-day move of 6.0%. Navigating this environment required participants to work through 19 decision points, including 7 critical junctures where positioning and risk tolerance were severely tested.
This scenario sharpens decision training by confronting participants with a prolonged bear market in commodities, forcing them to distinguish between tactical adjustments and emotional reactions. The 23.4% drawdown illustrates how quickly losses accumulate when trend and risk management conflict. For training purposes, the key questions become: When does fundamental deterioration warrant exit? How do you size positions to survive extended volatility? The scenario ultimately rewards those who balance disciplined process with psychological resilience under sustained pressure.