Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2022-01 to 2022-05
Replay 86 daily bars of heating oil from January through May 2022, when prices surged 46.6% amid the war-driven supply shock. Step through 15 decision points, including 5 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
86 daily bars · 15 decision points · 2022-01 to 2022-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 124 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 31.8% and a 87.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −31.8%
- Max run-up
- +87.6%
- Duration
- 124 days
- Largest single-day move
- −22.1%
- Bars
- 86 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 15
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In early 2022, the heating oil market faced a period of extraordinary uncertainty as geopolitical tensions escalated into open conflict. The commodity, essential for residential and industrial heating across northern regions, operates in a market highly sensitive to supply disruptions. Over 86 daily bars spanning January through May of that year, traders and risk managers confronted a rapidly evolving situation where traditional assumptions about supply chains and price stability were severely tested.
The price trajectory tells a stark story: heating oil surged from $2.79 to $4.09, representing a 46.6% gain as markets digested the implications of supply disruptions. Yet this headline figure obscures the turbulent path between those endpoints. A maximum drawdown of 31.8% measured the depth of interim volatility, while the largest single-bar move of 22.1% captured moments when uncertainty peaked and prices moved violently in either direction. Navigating this environment required not just directional conviction but also a robust framework for managing the whipsaw dynamics of a crisis-driven market.
This replay session, with its 15 decision points including 5 critical junctures, distills the essential tensions of crisis trading. Participants must grapple with the challenge of maintaining risk discipline during extended drawdowns, distinguishing between informed repositioning and reactive panic. The psychological dimension proves equally demanding: the combination of a clear directional trend and violent short-term swings creates fertile ground for both FOMO and fear-based exits. Success here depends less on predicting the next headline than on building a repeatable process that survives volatility while remaining flexible enough to adapt when the fundamental picture shifts.
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