Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2021-10 to 2022-04
Replay the 2021–2022 European heating oil shock across 122 daily bars, where prices climbed 28.2% from 2.55 to 3.27. Step through the market day-by-day, navigate 21 decision points, and receive AI coach review on your simulated reasoning.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2021-10 to 2022-04 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 175 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 31.8% and a 115.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −31.8%
- Max run-up
- +115.5%
- Duration
- 175 days
- Largest single-day move
- −22.1%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The European heating oil market entered October 2021 in a state of acute tension. Natural gas shortages had begun reshaping the continent's energy calculus, and demand for alternative heating sources was accelerating. The replay spans 122 daily bars from 2021-10-18 to 2022-04-11, placing participants inside a compressed 2020s energy crisis where every pricing signal carried consequence. What was at stake extended beyond portfolio performance—participants were learning to navigate a market where supply constraints and seasonal demand collided with geopolitical uncertainty.
The numbers tell a story of violent oscillation. Heating oil climbed from 2.55 to 3.27, delivering a 28.2% gain over the period. Yet this aggregate figure obscures the turbulence beneath: a maximum drawdown of 31.8% tested even patient strategies, while the largest single-bar move of 22.1% demanded split-second orientation. Across these 122 bars, traders confronted 21 decision points, with 7 deemed critical—moments where positioning and conviction separated outcomes. The market offered no smooth climb; it punished hesitation and rewarded disciplined adaptation.
This replay distills into process what charts alone cannot: the psychology of holding through drawdown, the discipline of sizing positions when volatility spikes, and the humility required to revise assumptions when fundamentals shift. Participants learn that surviving 31.8% drawdowns requires pre-commitment to risk parameters, not reactive decision-making. The 22.1% single-bar shocks teach emotional neutrality—prices leap or crash, but decisions must rest on logic, not fear. Ultimately, the 7 critical decision points become laboratories for testing whether your process survives when the market does not cooperate.
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