Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2020-02 to 2020-05
Replay 64 trading days as heating oil plunges 50.3% from 1.65 to 0.82 during the 2020 pandemic crash. You step through each decision point day-by-day, face 4 critical choices, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated decisions.
64 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2020-02 to 2020-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 91 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 64.3% and a 47.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −64.3%
- Max run-up
- +47.5%
- Duration
- 91 days
- Largest single-day move
- −18.0%
- Bars
- 64 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Energy markets in early 2020 faced an unprecedented shock as global demand collapsed under the weight of a spreading pandemic. Heating oil, a key winter fuel, was caught in the crossfire of economic uncertainty and travel restrictions. This replay drops you into 64 trading days spanning February 5 to May 6, 2020, with a starting price of 1.65. Eleven decision points await, four of them critical moments where directional conviction and risk management would be tested to the limit.
The price collapsed 50.3%, falling from 1.65 to 0.82 over the replay period. The damage ran deeper than the headline decline—maximum drawdown reached 64.3%, meaning anyone holding through the worst would have seen their position nearly wiped out. Volatility was extreme, with single-day moves as large as 18.0%, creating whipsaws that punished impulsive entries and exits alike.
This scenario strips away the comfort of hindsight and forces you to decide under pressure. The 64.3% peak-to-trough loss reminds us why position sizing and stop-loss discipline matter before a trade is placed, not after. The 18.0% single-bar swings test whether you will abandon a sound process or chase adrenaline. Four critical junctures ask whether you will size down, hedge, or hold conviction when every signal screams danger. The replay teaches that survival in a crisis depends not on predicting the bottom, but on preserving capital through disciplined process.
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