Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2020-08 to 2020-12
Replay 84 daily bars of US heating oil from late August to December 2020, when price climbed 24.2% on a weakening dollar. Step through the day-by-day tape, face 15 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
84 daily bars · 15 decision points · 2020-08 to 2020-12 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 120 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.2% and a 39.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.2%
- Max run-up
- +39.8%
- Duration
- 120 days
- Largest single-day move
- +7.0%
- Bars
- 84 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 15
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The US heating oil market entered a pivotal five-month window from late August to December 2020, as the world navigated the ongoing pandemic. Investors and analysts tracked the commodity against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, shifting monetary policy expectations, and a dollar that showed signs of exhaustion after earlier pandemic-driven rallies. This was a period where energy markets offered sharp lessons in timing, position sizing, and the psychological challenges of trading around a once-in-a-generation health crisis.
Over the 84 daily bars spanning 2020-08-31 to 2020-12-29, heating oil climbed from 1.2 to 1.49, delivering a 24.2% gain that reflected the dollar's waning strength. Yet the path was anything but smooth—the largest single-bar move reached 7.0%, and the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 12.2% along the way. Navigating this tape required confronting 15 distinct decision points, including 5 critical moments that demanded precise entry, exit, or risk-adjustment choices amid persistent uncertainty.
This replay sharpens decision-making through historical context rather than hindsight. Participants learn to calibrate position size against known volatility, practice discipline when drawdowns test conviction, and recognize when conviction justifies holding through noise. The 84-day tape demonstrates that even a correct directional thesis requires sound process and emotional management to translate into results. Reviewing your simulated choices against this tape reveals whether you let volatility derail discipline or whether you maintained the steady hand necessary to capture a 24.2% move.