Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2020-01 to 2020-06
Heating oil collapsed 39.4% across 86 trading days from January 29 to June 1, 2020, a brutal pandemic-era energy drawdown. Step through each session, tackle 15 decision points including 5 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review, simulated capital only.
86 daily bars · 15 decision points · 2020-01 to 2020-06 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 124 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 64.3% and a 68.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −64.3%
- Max run-up
- +68.9%
- Duration
- 124 days
- Largest single-day move
- −18.0%
- Bars
- 86 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 15
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Heating oil futures represent one of the most operationally complex sectors in commodities, where supply logistics, seasonal demand, and macroeconomic sensitivity intersect. The opening months of 2020 delivered a once-in-a-generation stress test to this market, as a global pandemicupended energy consumption patterns virtually overnight. From January 29 to June 1, 2020, traders faced 86 daily bars of an unfolding crisis with no playbook and limited precedent, making every session a test of discipline under profound uncertainty.
The collapse was swift and punishing. Heating oil fell from a closing level of 1.7 to finish at 1.03, a decline of 39.4% across those 86 trading sessions. The maximum drawdown reached 64.3%, meaning any trader caught on the wrong side of directional exposure experienced paper losses far exceeding the headline percentage. The largest single-bar move of 18.0% demonstrated that volatility was not merely elevated but capable of erasing positions in a single session, rendering traditional stop-loss assumptions dangerously inadequate.
This replay is designed to train decision-makers in exactly the skills this period demanded: calibrating position size against tail risk, maintaining process discipline when drawdowns exceed comfort thresholds, and recognizing when market structure has fundamentally shifted. The 15 decision points, including 5 critical junctures, force participants to confront the psychological friction of loss aversion and the temptation to average down into a falling market. Historical context transforms this episode from a cautionary tale into a structured laboratory for building durable risk judgment.
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