Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2015-11 to 2016-05
Replay 122 trading days of heating oil from November 2015 to May 2016, capturing a brutal 37.9% max drawdown on energy markets. You step through each daily bar, face 21 decision points with AI coach review, and learn from history using simulated capital.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2015-11 to 2016-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 37.9% and a 60.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −37.9%
- Max run-up
- +60.9%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- +11.1%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Energy markets in late 2015 presented traders with a harsh test. Heating oil, a key refined petroleum product, entered a period of severe distress as global oversupply, warming temperatures, and slowing demand converged to pressure prices sharply lower. This replay spans 122 trading days from November 2015 to May 2016, a stretch when energy commodities faced historic headwinds and participants had to navigate extreme uncertainty with real capital at risk.
The numbers tell a stark story. Despite ending the period with a modest 1.5% gain (1.37 to 1.39), the journey was brutal—a maximum drawdown of 37.9% and a largest single-bar move of 11.1% tested every position and every assumption. Twenty-one decision points, seven of them critical, demanded disciplined responses in an environment where even experienced traders struggled to find footing.
This replay sharpens decision-making under pressure. Traders confront the psychological temptation to average down into a falling market or exit at the worst possible moment. The 37.9% drawdown forces honest reflection on position sizing and risk tolerance, while the 11.1% single-day swings reveal how quickly narrative can shift. By stepping through each daily bar with simulated capital, participants build the emotional resilience and process discipline that separate informed risk-taking from reckless speculation.
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