WTI Crude Oil Historical Replay: 2003-02 to 2003-07
Replay the 2003 WTI crude oil market across 120 daily bars, capturing a 33.3% peak-to-trough drawdown as war-driven volatility gripped energy markets. You step through each session, weigh choices at 21 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of simulated historical decisions.
120 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2003-02 to 2003-07 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 171 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 33.3% and a 28.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −33.3%
- Max run-up
- +28.2%
- Duration
- 171 days
- Largest single-day move
- −10.9%
- Bars
- 120 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The opening months of 2003 found crude oil traders navigating one of the most charged geopolitical environments in recent memory. With military action against Iraq appearing increasingly inevitable, energy markets struggled to price the uncertainty of potential supply disruptions versus demand destruction. Over 120 trading sessions spanning February to July, participants in this replay confronted a market where war premiums shifted daily, sometimes hourly, demanding constant reassessment of positions and risk tolerance.
The price action told a story of extreme volatility beneath a relatively modest net decline. WTI crude opened the period at $33.58 per barrel and closed at $30.17, representing a -10.2% net move over the full span. Yet this headline number obscured far more dramatic swings: a maximum drawdown of 33.3% tested even disciplined risk managers, while the largest single trading session delivered a 10.9% move—enough to unsettle the steadiest hands. Across the 21 decision points embedded within this replay, seven carried critical significance for portfolio outcomes.
This scenario excels as a training ground for decision-making under genuine uncertainty. The gap between the headline -10.2% return and the 33.3% peak-to-trough drawdown illustrates how easily passive exposure becomes unbearable, teaching position sizing and stop-loss discipline. The 10.9% single-bar volatility reminds participants that news-driven markets can gap against them overnight, making entries and exits as important as direction calls. Navigating 21 decision points—seven critical—requires participants to confront their own biases, question assumptions driven by headlines, and build processes robust enough to survive environments where fundamentals alone cannot explain price behavior.