Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2003-02 to 2003-07
Replay 120 daily bars of heating oil from February to July 2003 as the Iraq war reshaped energy markets, with prices sliding 18.7% amid 46.0% drawdowns. Make your own calls at 21 decision points, then review each trade with the AI coach in a simulated, educational environment.
120 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2003-02 to 2003-07 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 171 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 46.0% and a 31.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −46.0%
- Max run-up
- +31.3%
- Duration
- 171 days
- Largest single-day move
- −17.5%
- Bars
- 120 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In early 2003, the Iraq war created a charged environment for energy traders navigating the 2000s decade. Heating oil, a critical winter fuel, sat at the intersection of geopolitical risk and supply uncertainty. This replay covers 120 daily bars from February 4, 2003 to July 25, 2003, placing participants directly into the action as the conflict unfolded.
Heating oil closed the period at 0.78, down from an opening of 0.96, representing a decline of -18.7%. Beneath the net loss lay extraordinary turbulence: a maximum drawdown of 46.0% tested even patient traders, while the largest single-bar move of 17.5% could have wiped out careless positions in a single session. These numbers frame a market that rewarded discipline and punished impulse. Twenty-one decision points were embedded across the data, with seven deemed critical moments where directional conviction mattered most.
This scenario sharpens skills that transcend any single market: calibrating position size against hidden volatility, resisting the pull of narrative during uncertain times, and reviewing each call with the AI coach to isolate what drove success or failure. The goal is not to predict the next war, but to build a repeatable process for navigating environments where conventional analysis falls short.