San Francisco Historical Replay: 2018-12 to 2021-05
Replay 30 monthly bars from the 2018-12 to 2021-05 window, capturing a 24.8% climb with a 1.7% pandemic-era dip. You walk through 6 decision points, two flagged as critical, then receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2018-12 to 2021-05 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 1.7% with a 26.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −1.7%
- Max run-up
- +26.5%
- Largest single-month move
- +3.2%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
San Francisco's city property market from 2018-12 to 2021-05 offers a contained window into how urban real estate navigates unprecedented disruption. This 30-month monthly replay spans two decades—the tail end of the 2010s and the shock onset of the 2020s—compressed into a decision-training format. The core tension: a pandemic erupting mid-cycle, forcing participants to act with incomplete information.
Price ascended from 261.24 to 326.08, delivering a 24.8% cumulative return despite the turmoil. The drawdown remained shallow at just 1.7%, and volatility stayed muted with the largest monthly candle spanning only 3.2%. Six decision nodes punctuate the replay, two marked as critical inflection points where conviction and risk management diverge sharply.
This scenario sharpens judgment around maintaining discipline when surface-level panic suggests retreat. Participants confront the psychological pull of loss aversion during a health crisis while managing positions through a compressed timeline. The limited drawdown teaches that not every macro shock demands tactical capitulation—sometimes the greatest skill is recognizing when structural tailwinds override temporary volatility. By working through critical nodes without hindsight bias, learners build probabilistic reasoning calibrated to historical precedent rather than present emotion.
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