Natural Gas Historical Replay: 2004-11 to 2005-05
Replay 122 daily bars of natural gas from November 2004 to May 2005, when the front-month contract fell 12.5% from 7.44 to 6.51. Walk through each session, confront 21 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2004-11 to 2005-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 178 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 27.4% and a 33.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −27.4%
- Max run-up
- +33.9%
- Duration
- 178 days
- Largest single-day move
- +17.5%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scene opens on a natural gas market navigating the inflationary pressures of the 2000s. From November 15, 2004 to May 12, 2005, 122 daily bars present traders with 21 decision points—7 of them critical moments demanding decisive action. The front-month contract's starting level of 7.44 sets the stage for a journey testing both analytical skill and emotional discipline. Participants enter a period where energy markets were responding to complex macroeconomic forces, making direction unpredictable and risk management essential.
The five-month period delivered a net decline of 12.5%, with the contract closing at 6.51. However, this headline figure obscures the turbulence beneath the surface: a maximum drawdown of 27.4% tested any portfolio's resilience, while the largest single-bar move of 17.5% created moments of extreme volatility. These figures reveal that surviving such swings required nerves of steel or a robust risk framework that prevented catastrophic loss before the dust settled.
The historical replay teaches that surviving a volatile market requires more than correct directional calls. Process discipline means respecting each of the 21 decision points and making deliberate choices rather than passive observations. Risk management means sizing positions so that a 27.4% drawdown does not cripple the account. Psychological resilience means staying rational when 17.5% single-day moves create panic or euphoria. This scenario strips away the comfort of hindsight, forcing traders to confront uncertainty as it actually existed, building the mental models needed for future market turbulence.
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