Natural Gas Historical Replay: 2003-11 to 2004-05
Replay the natural gas rally from 4.8 to 6.48 across 122 daily bars, navigating a 30.3% drawdown and a 12.4% single-day spike. Work through 21 decision points, including 7 critical ones, with AI coach review on simulated capital only.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2003-11 to 2004-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 182 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 30.3% and a 57.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −30.3%
- Max run-up
- +57.8%
- Duration
- 182 days
- Largest single-day move
- +12.4%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The natural gas market in late 2003 stood at a critical inflection point. Energy prices were responding to shifting supply-demand dynamics, and traders faced a period of heightened uncertainty. This historical replay spans from November 13, 2003 to May 13, 2004, capturing 122 daily bars of authentic market data from the 2000s energy sector. The scenario posed the question: how does one navigate a market primed for explosive moves?
What unfolded was a 35.0% rally from 4.8 to 6.48, yet the journey was far from linear. The scenario included a maximum drawdown of 30.3%, testing discipline and risk management under sustained pressure. A defining moment arrived with a 12.4% single-bar spike, demanding split-second judgment. Across 21 decision points—including 7 critical junctures—participants confronted realistic choices about position sizing, stops, and conviction.
This replay distills lessons in process over prediction. The 30.3% drawdown illustrates how even correct directional bets can punish unprotected positions. The 12.4% spike reminds traders that volatility cuts both ways, rewarding some while destroying others. Success here requires separating emotional reactions from systematic responses. The 7 critical decision points serve as checkpoints for examining whether one's framework holds under stress. Historical accuracy grounds these lessons in real market behavior, not hypothetical scenarios.
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