Cotton Historical Replay: 2022-07 to 2023-01
Replay a 126-day cotton futures window where prices fell 17.3% from 100.2 to 82.82, absorbing a 41.1% drawdown along the way. You make calls at 22 decision points, including 8 critical ones, then receive an AI coach review of your reasoning. Simulated capital only.
126 daily bars · 22 decision points · 2022-07 to 2023-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 182 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 41.1% and a 25.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −41.1%
- Max run-up
- +25.4%
- Duration
- 182 days
- Largest single-day move
- +7.0%
- Bars
- 126 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 22
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Cotton futures entered the spotlight during a turbulent stretch from mid-2022 into early 2023, when soft commodity markets faced crosscurrents from macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting demand signals. This 126-bar replay window from 2022-07-19 to 2023-01-17 places you inside a market where the direction was far from obvious and the stakes for capital preservation were real. Across the span you face 22 decision points, 8 of them critical junctures where a single call could swing outcomes dramatically. The decade in question—the 2020s—had already shown commodities could move with unusual velocity, setting the stage for a test of both preparation and nerve.
What unfolded over those six months was a sustained decline rather than a single dramatic crash. Prices retreated from 100.2 to 82.82, a net move of -17.3%. Yet the journey was far more turbulent than the endpoint suggests, with peak-to-trough drawdown reaching 41.1%—more than double the net loss. The largest single-bar move of 7.0% appeared at a moment of heightened volatility, underscoring how quickly the market could lurch against positions. Those caught on the wrong side or overleveraged would have felt the squeeze acutely, while those with disciplined sizing and clear contingencies could have navigated the turbulence.
This replay is a classroom for three essential lessons. First, process matters more than prediction: with drawdown exceeding net loss by a wide margin, outcome depends heavily on how you manage risk in real time rather than on calling every turn. Second, volatility itself is a risk factor—single-day moves of 7.0% can test position sizing assumptions and force humility about assumed safety margins. Third, psychology is the final exam: enduring a 41.1% drawdown without abandoning a sound plan separates disciplined practitioners from reactive ones. Use this scenario to stress-test your frameworks, not to prove a point about the direction of cotton.