Cotton Historical Replay: 2020-01 to 2020-06
Replay the first half of 2020 in cotton futures, watching price slide 14.3% from 70.06 to 60.06 across 86 daily bars as pandemic panic peaked. Step through authentic decision points day-by-day, face 5 critical choices, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated trades.
86 daily bars · 15 decision points · 2020-01 to 2020-06 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 124 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 30.9% and a 24.1% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −30.9%
- Max run-up
- +24.1%
- Duration
- 124 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.6%
- Bars
- 86 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 15
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scene opens in late January 2020, when cotton futures traded around 70.06 per pound against a backdrop of growing global health concerns. What began as distant news from China rapidly evolved into a worldwide pandemic that would reshape commodity markets fundamentally. For traders and analysts watching soft commodities, the stakes were enormous: supply chains were freezing, demand forecasts were collapsing, and the rules of normal market behavior seemed to dissolve overnight.
What followed over the next four months defied many established expectations. Across 86 daily bars spanning January 29 to June 1, 2020, cotton prices ultimately fell 14.3% to close at 60.06. Yet the journey proved far more turbulent than the net figure suggests—the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 30.9%, with the largest single trading session delivering a 5.6% move. This violent oscillation between panic selling and brief recoveries created 15 distinct decision points, of which 5 proved particularly critical for positioning and risk exposure.
The scenario offers a rigorous laboratory for testing decision-making under extreme uncertainty. Navigating a 30.9% drawdown requires more than technical analysis; it demands disciplined position sizing, pre-defined exit strategies, and psychological resilience when market consensus turns bearish. Participants in this replay confront the fundamental challenge: distinguishing between information-driven adjustments and emotionally-fueled overreactions. Mastering this distinction separates informed risk management from reckless speculation.
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