China National (Real Estate Climate Index, 1998+) Historical Replay: 2021-04 to 2023-09
China's national property sentiment index fell from 101.29 to 93.37 over 30 months through September 2023. Replay this long-cycle collapse day by day, face six decision points, and receive an AI coach review in a simulated, educational environment.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2021-04 to 2023-09 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 7.8% with a 0.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −7.8%
- Max run-up
- +0.4%
- Largest single-month move
- −3.5%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario centers on China's national property sector sentiment index, replaying a 30-month window from April 2021 through September 2023 that captures the second leg of a structural downturn triggered by the 2021 Evergrande crisis. Participants face a market in gradual erosion, where policy headwinds, funding pressures, and weakening buyer confidence created a slow-motion unraveling rather than a sudden crash. Six decision points—including two marked critical—punctuate the replay, demanding choices amid persistent uncertainty.
The index descended from 101.29 to 93.37, a decline of approximately 7.8% over the full span. The trajectory was not linear; volatility emerged in a maximum single-bar move of 3.5%, revealing moments of acute stress amid the broader contraction. Peak drawdown matched the total decline at 7.8%, indicating the index never recovered meaningfully before the replay's conclusion.
This replay trains participants to navigate prolonged, grinding declines where the absence of dramatic crashes can breed complacency. The challenge lies in maintaining disciplined risk management when losses accumulate incrementally, and in recognizing that extended downturns demand different psychological responses than sharp sell-offs. Participants learn to question whether deteriorating momentum reflects temporary stress or structural shift, and to resist the trap of premature bottom-fishing in an environment where the exit remains unclear.
Featured in the archive