US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2011-03 to 2013-08
Replay the 2011-03 to 2013-08 Case-Shiller national home-price recovery across 30 monthly bars, climbing from 137.78 to 159.38. Step through each decision point day by day, face 2 critical moments, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2011-03 to 2013-08 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 5.9% with a 18.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −5.9%
- Max run-up
- +18.9%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.0%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario replays the post-crisis recovery in U.S. residential real estate across 30 monthly bars, spanning March 2011 to August 2013. The Case-Shiller national home price index began at 137.78, capturing a critical inflection point where markets transitioned from distressed lows toward stabilization and early growth. Six decision points are embedded throughout this period, with two marked as critical junctions where directional conviction would be severely tested. Participants must navigate the uncertainty of a healing market without the benefit of hindsight.
The index ultimately rose 15.7% over the 30-month span, reaching 159.38. Yet the trajectory was neither smooth nor linear—maximum drawdown of 5.9% reminded participants that reversals can emerge even within an overarching uptrend, and the largest single-bar move of 2.0% highlighted moments of acute volatility that could unsettle positions. Month after month, the market oscillated between optimism and doubt, testing the resolve of anyone holding or considering exposure.
This replay sharpens decision-making discipline by confronting participants with the psychological challenges of trend-following during genuine recovery. The scenario reveals how easy it is to mistake normal pullbacks for structural breaks, and how the absence of dramatic single-day moves (the largest being only 2.0%) can breed complacency. The key takeaway for training purposes is cultivating the patience to hold through manageable drawdowns while remaining alert to the rare moments when conviction must be recalibrated. Understanding that a 5.9% pullback within a 15.7% advance is historically normal builds the emotional resilience necessary for sustained market participation.
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