US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2011-04 to 2018-07
Replay a 30-month U.S. national property rebound from April 2011 with a 36.1% close-to-close climb. Step through each monthly bar, navigate six decision points including two critical ones, and receive an AI coach review.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2011-04 to 2018-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 1.5% with a 36.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −1.5%
- Max run-up
- +36.5%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.2%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
This scenario replays the U.S. national housing market during its post-crisis recovery phase, spanning from April 2011 to July 2018 across 30 monthly bars. Participants engage with a market where the critical question was whether the rebound would sustain or falter amid lingering economic uncertainty. The timeframe represents the early stage of a prolonged recovery, placing decision-makers at a pivotal moment when conviction and risk management would be equally important.
Over the 30-month replay window, national property values climbed from 309.1 to 420.75, delivering a 36.1% cumulative advance. The journey was notably smooth, with maximum drawdown constrained to just 1.5% and the largest single monthly move reaching only 2.2%. Six decision points punctuate the replay, with two marked as critical junctures where directional conviction would be tested. These modest volatility figures belied the underlying significance of each choice.
This replay excels as a decision-training exercise precisely because it avoids dramatic volatility. With minimal drawdown and measured monthly swings, participants must focus on process rather than reacting to urgency. Navigating six decision points cultivates disciplined risk assessment, while the two critical moments test conviction management. The scenario teaches that periods of steady appreciation demand as much psychological rigor as turbulent markets, reinforcing that sustainable returns reward systematic decision-making over impulsive action.
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