US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2011-10 to 2019-01
Replay a steady 30-month US national property boom where prices climbed 36.5% from 312.84 to 426.9. Step through each monthly bar, tackle six decision points, and receive AI coach feedback on your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2011-10 to 2019-01 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 1.5% with a 38.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −1.5%
- Max run-up
- +38.5%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.2%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
This replay transports you to US national residential property markets during a sustained 30-month surge from October 2011 to January 2019, a clear boom phase within the 2010s decade. The scenario presents six decision points, two of which are marked as critical, challenging you to navigate a market where prices climbed steadily from 312.84 to 426.9, delivering a 36.5% total return. What distinguishes this boom is its composure: the maximum drawdown never exceeded 1.5% and the largest single monthly move was just 2.2%, making this a remarkably smooth trajectory rather than a volatile ascent.
Participants experience a market that rewarded patience and conviction. The steady climb from 312.84 to 426.9 unfolded with unusual tranquility, tested by only modest pullbacks and contained monthly fluctuations. Six decision points punctuated this journey, forcing choices about position sizing, entry timing, and rebalancing strategy even when the environment appeared benign. The two critical decision points likely demanded calibration between capturing upside and respecting emerging risks.
This replay sharpens decision training around two psychological traps common in stable booms. First, overconfidence: steady gains can breed complacency about risk management and position sizing. Second, excessive caution: minimal volatility may lead to under-hedging or missed opportunity. The 1.5% drawdown and 2.2% single-bar moves provide a baseline for calibrating expectations. Six decision points test discipline through relatively quiet markets, teaching that sound process matters as much in serene trends as in crises. The 2010s property boom serves as a controlled environment for examining how confidence, caution, and conviction interact across an extended upward cycle.