US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2007-07 to 2014-10
Replay the U.S. national housing collapse from July 2007 to October 2014 across 30 monthly bars, watching the index fall 8.2% with an 18.0% drawdown. Navigate 6 decision points, including 2 critical ones, in this simulated educational market replay.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2007-07 to 2014-10 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 18.0% with a 11.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −18.0%
- Max run-up
- +11.9%
- Largest single-month move
- −3.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The FHFA U.S. National Home Price Index offers a rigorous laboratory for replaying one of modern finance's most consequential crashes. Spanning July 2007 through October 2014 across 30 monthly bars, this replay captures the subprime crisis aftermath and the agonizingly slow recovery that defined the 2000s and 2010s decade crossover. Participants navigate a market where the conventional wisdom of "real estate always rises" was being violently dismantled, and where the rules of risk management written for bull markets were being stress-tested to failure.
The index closed the replay period at 344.88, down from an opening of 375.82—a net decline of -8.2%. Beneath that headline figure lurked far more turbulence: a maximum drawdown of 18.0% tested any portfolio's resilience, while the largest single monthly move of 3.1% reminded participants that volatility clusters in crisis environments. This was not a single event but a grinding, volatile descent with intermittent dead-cat bounces that punished premature optimism.
This replay sharpens decision-making under deep uncertainty. The six decision points—two flagged as critical—force participants to confront the classic dilemma of catching falling knives versus missing recoveries. The 18.0% drawdown teaches position sizing discipline, while the 3.1% single-bar volatility challenges assumptions about monthly rebalancing adequacy. The core lesson: in systemic crises, process discipline trumps conviction. Survival requires separating the mathematics of drawdown recovery from the psychology of loss aversion—a distinction this replay makes visceral rather than abstract.
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