US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2004-04 to 2011-07
Replay 30 monthly bars of US national property prices from April 2004 through July 2011, capturing an 18.7% peak-to-trough crash. Step through each historical day, face 6 decision points, and receive an AI coach review—simulated capital, purely educational.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-04 to 2011-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 18.7% with a 23.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −18.7%
- Max run-up
- +23.8%
- Largest single-month move
- +3.8%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
This replay immerses participants in US national property prices from April 2004 through July 2011, spanning the 2000s and 2010s. What began as an overheated housing market would unravel into the most severe residential collapse since the Great Depression. The period placed enormous capital at risk as mortgage delinquencies spiked, lender balance sheets deteriorated, and the broader financial system teetered toward crisis.
The 30 monthly bars delivered an 18.7% peak-to-trough drawdown despite a modest 1.3% net close at 311.4 from an opening 307.31. The largest single-bar move reached 3.8%, underscoring the volatility that characterized this era. Six decision points punctuated the replay, with two deemed critical junctures where positioning decisions carried outsized consequences for outcomes.
For decision training, this scenario exposes the cruel asymmetry between knowing history and living through it in real time. Participants confront the challenge of maintaining discipline when drawdowns approach 18.7%, resisting the impulse to abandon sound process during panic. The two critical decision points test whether one has pre-established rules for crisis navigation or reacts emotionally to unfolding events. Ultimately, the replay teaches that surviving systemic shocks requires both robust risk frameworks and psychological resilience—the kind that keeps decision-makers from becoming their own worst enemy when markets turn hostile.
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