US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2004-07 to 2011-10
Walk through 30 monthly bars from 2004-07 to 2011-10 as U.S. home prices trace an 18.7% drawdown. Replay each day, navigate six decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-07 to 2011-10 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 18.7% with a 19.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −18.7%
- Max run-up
- +19.2%
- Largest single-month move
- +3.2%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The U.S. housing market enters this replay as a seemingly stable national average, yet the FHFA index conceals a turbulent decade. From 2004-07 to 2011-10, 30 monthly bars capture the transformation from peak optimism to a deep correction, a period that reshaped how Americans think about residential real estate. Six decision points punctuate this historical run, two of them marked as critical moments where positioning could mean the difference between weathering the storm or amplifying losses.
The closing figure of 312.84 represents a -1.9% change from the opening 319.01, a modest headline number that obscures the severity of the journey. Beneath this small net decline lies an 18.7% maximum drawdown, meaning the market fell nearly one-fifth from its peak before attempting recovery. The largest single-bar move of 3.2% shows how individual months could deliver outsized shocks, challenging any assumption of gradual, predictable price drift. Players navigating these bars learned that nominal endpoints rarely tell the full story of volatility and risk exposure.
This scenario trains decision-makers to resist the anchoring bias of starting prices and to measure performance against maximum vulnerability rather than final outcomes. Encountering six decision points, including two critical junctures, forces deliberate choices about position sizing, timing, and risk acceptance in an environment where the largest moves arrive without warning. The psychological discipline required—maintaining composure through an 18.7% drawdown and avoiding reactive selling at the worst moment—translates directly to managing positions in any volatile market.