Bulgaria National (BIS) Historical Replay: 2004-04 to 2011-07
Replay 30 monthly bars of Bulgaria's property market from April 2004, navigating a 40.1% drawdown across its boom era. You make decisions at six points, with AI coaching after each simulated bar.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-04 to 2011-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 40.1% with a 100.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −40.1%
- Max run-up
- +100.7%
- Largest single-month move
- +12.3%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Bulgaria's national property market (BIS index) enters the replay in April 2004, a period when Central and Eastern European real estate attracted massive foreign capital flows. The scenario spans 30 monthly bars through July 2011, capturing an asset class that seemed to promise consistent growth. At stake: navigating a market that would deliver a net gain of 20.3% while testing participants with severe intermediate drawdowns. This is a study in managing conviction during periods of apparent stability that conceal sudden instability.
From an opening level of 75.39, the index closed at 90.66, reflecting a modest 20.3% appreciation over the full span. Yet this headline figure obscures a turbulent internal journey: the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 40.1%, and participants confronted the largest single monthly move of 12.3%. Six decision points were embedded throughout, with two designated as critical junctures where directional conviction would be most severely tested. The gap between aggregate return and lived experience becomes the central tension of this replay.
The scenario teaches that headline returns rarely reflect the psychological toll of interim losses. Participants must practice position sizing and emotional preparation for drawdowns before they materialize, not during. With six decision points across volatile terrain, the replay sharpens judgment about when conviction is warranted and when course correction serves better. The presence of 12.3% single-bar moves reminds us that momentum can shift abruptly, demanding risk protocols that function independently of sentiment. This is decision training: building systematic responses to uncertainty rather than reacting to outcomes already past.
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