China National (Real Estate Climate Index, 1998+) Historical Replay: 2004-03 to 2006-08
Replay China's 1998+ national property index from March 2004 through August 2006, a 30-month window where the close slipped -2.7% yet swung 2.1% in a single month. Walk through six decision points, with AI coach feedback after each one, simulated capital only.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-03 to 2006-08 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 5.3% with a 2.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −5.3%
- Max run-up
- +2.9%
- Largest single-month move
- −2.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
China's national property sentiment index (Guofang Jingqi Zhishu), tracking the sector's vitality since 1998, presents a nuanced replay scenario covering March 2004 through August 2006. This 30-month window spans a critical phase in the early 2000s real estate cycle, when housing had already emerged as a pillar of economic growth following the 1998 reforms. Participants face the challenge of navigating a market that offered limited directional opportunity yet demanded precise timing and risk discipline.
Across the 30 monthly bars, the index closed at 106.2 and retreated to 103.31, delivering a net loss of -2.7%. Beneath this modest decline lay meaningful turbulence: a maximum drawdown of 5.3% tested capital preservation, while the largest single-month swing of 2.1% created sharp inflection points. Six decision moments punctuated the period, with two deemed critical—moments where positioning errors could have compounded losses or where missed signals meant foregoing defensive action.
This replay teaches that flat or declining markets demand as much strategic rigor as trending ones. The -2.7% outcome, combined with the 5.3% drawdown, illustrates how noise can erode confidence even when macro direction appears benign. Decision training here focuses on process adherence during frustrating periods, managing position size against a 2.1% single-bar volatility spike, and maintaining psychological equilibrium when the index offers no clear trend reward. Mastery of sideways markets separates disciplined practitioners from impulsive ones.