US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2004-03 to 2006-08
Replay 30 monthly bars of the US national Case-Shiller index from March 2004 through August 2006, a span where the index climbed 28.0% before peaking. Step into each decision point and receive an AI coach review of your choices, with simulated capital only.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-03 to 2006-08 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.1% with a 28.1% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.1%
- Max run-up
- +28.1%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
This replay spans 30 monthly bars of the US national Case-Shiller index from March 2004 through August 2006, covering the final leg of the 2000s housing boom. With six decision points—two flagged as critical—this scenario places you in the mindset of investors navigating an apparently relentless climb. The index had already doubled from its 2000 baseline, and the market was debating whether prices could sustain their trajectory as the Federal Reserve began signaling tighter policy.
What unfolded was a steady 28.0% advance, taking the index from 144.08 to 184.4 before the August 2006 peak. Remarkably, the period featured a maximum drawdown of just 0.1% and the largest single monthly move reached only 1.6%—a portrait of almost eerie stability. This was the calm before the storm, a market that had conditioned participants to expect gentle, consistent gains with minimal turbulence.
For decision training, this scenario reveals how low-volatility environments can breed complacency. The near-zero drawdown and modest monthly swings create an illusion of safety, potentially encouraging excessive risk-taking or overconfidence. Participants must practice distinguishing between genuine market strength and the dangerous serenity that precedes reversals. The two critical decision points test whether you can maintain discipline when the tape looks benign and volatility appears permanently tamed.