US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2002-04 to 2009-07
Replay the US national housing market from April 2002 to July 2009, watching the FHFA index climb 24.5% before a 12.6% drawdown. Step through 30 monthly decision points, including 2 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review on each simulated choice.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2002-04 to 2009-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.6% with a 42.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.6%
- Max run-up
- +42.5%
- Largest single-month move
- +3.8%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The US national housing market entered a critical phase as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2004, a policy shift that would eventually punctuate one of the most dramatic boom-bust cycles in modern history. This replay spans April 2002 to July 2009, covering 30 monthly bars of FHFA index data across the 2000s decade. Participants must navigate six decision points, including two critical inflection moments, as they watch the market's trajectory unfold.
Over the full period, the FHFA index climbed from 266.92 to 332.27, delivering a 24.5% cumulative return. Yet this aggregate gain obscures a turbulent journey: a maximum drawdown of 12.6% tested portfolio resilience, while the largest single-bar move of 3.8% reminded participants how quickly sentiment could shift. The interplay between rising rates and peak valuations created the conditions for one of housing's most instructive downturns.
For decision training, this scenario excels at teaching process over prediction. The two critical decision points force disciplined risk assessment, while the 12.6% drawdown illustrates how aggregate numbers mask volatility. Participants learn to separate analysis from outcome, resist hindsight bias, and maintain decision quality even when market conditions turn hostile. The housing collapse of the late 2000s remains a masterclass in the dangers of extrapolating recent trends.
Featured in the archive