US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 1996-07 to 2003-10
Replay the U.S. national FHFA housing index from 1996 to 2003, when prices climbed 51.8% across 30 monthly bars. Step through each bar, tackle six decision points, and receive AI coach feedback in this simulated educational training environment.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 1996-07 to 2003-10 · Property
Key facts
- Max run-up
- +51.8%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.8%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
From mid-1996 to late 2003, this replay immerses you in the U.S. national FHFA housing index, a market that quietly set the stage for the subprime boom. The era spans two full decades—the 1990s into the 2000s—and the question at each monthly bar is simple yet profound: how do you read a market that refuses to fall? With six decision points, including two critical junctures, every step demands disciplined analysis rather than momentum chasing.
Across the 30 monthly bars, the index climbed from a close of 194.54 to 295.33, delivering a cumulative return of 51.8%. What makes this period striking is its calm under the surface: the maximum drawdown registered a remarkable 0.0%, while the largest single-bar move topped out at just 2.8%. These statistics reveal a sustained, grinding advance with minimal volatility spikes—a hallmark of early bubble formation where confidence builds gradually and corrections are shallow.
For decision training, this scenario teaches patience and process over prediction. The near-zero drawdown environment can breed complacency, yet the 2.8% single-bar swings remind you that volatility exists even in trending markets. Grappling with six decision points—two of them critical—sharpens your ability to distinguish signal from noise, manage risk under false calm, and resist the psychological pull of unquestioned optimism that characterizes bubble psychology.
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