US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 1998-04 to 2005-07
Replay 30 monthly bars from April 1998 to July 2005 as the FHFA US national house price index climbs from 209.56 to 354.45, a 69.1 percent rise. Step through each historical day, face six decision points including two critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your choices in this simulated educational scenario.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 1998-04 to 2005-07 · Property
Key facts
- Max run-up
- +69.1%
- Largest single-month move
- +3.8%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The FHFA US national house price index from April 1998 to July 2005 spans the 1990s and 2000s, covering the opening chapter of the subprime mortgage boom. This 30-month replay presents a market where housing had become a favored asset class, with six decision points including two critical nodes. Participants must navigate the early stages of what would later become a systemic crisis, balancing bullish momentum against emerging signs of excess.
Across these 30 monthly bars, the index rose from 209.56 to 354.45, a cumulative advance of 69.1 percent. The market delivered this gain with zero drawdown throughout, the largest single-bar move reaching only 3.8 percent. This was not a dramatic parabolic blowoff but a steady, grinding climb that conditioned participants to expect continued gradual appreciation.
The absence of drawdown is the scenario's sharpest teaching edge. When prices grind steadily upward without interruption, psychological guardrails loosen. The relatively modest volatility can breed complacency about leverage and liquidity risk. Six decision points force participants to articulate their process when the market offers no corrective signal. This replay illustrates how sustained tranquility can be its own form of danger in decision training, rewarding discipline while masking the accumulation of hidden fragilities.
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