Soybean Historical Replay: 2015-11 to 2016-05
Replay 122 daily bars of the US soybean market from 2015-11-17 to 2016-05-12, watching the close climb 23.2% from 864 to 1064.5. You will step through day-by-day decision points and receive an AI coach review in this simulated, educational environment.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2015-11 to 2016-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 6.1% and a 26.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −6.1%
- Max run-up
- +26.5%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.6%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
This scenario replays 122 daily bars of US soybean futures from 2015-11-17 to 2016-05-12 during the 2010s decade. The market was navigating post-harvest seasonal dynamics and evolving global demand signals, creating an environment where agricultural commodities often exhibit pronounced directional trends punctuated by sharp reversals. Participants face the challenge of positioning through a period where supply reports, weather concerns, and currency movements could trigger rapid sentiment shifts. The stakes center on understanding momentum mechanics in a market known for its sensitivity to fundamental surprises.
The close climbed 23.2% from 864 to 1064.5 over this span, a substantial move that tested conviction across the period. The journey was not straight, with a maximum drawdown of 6.1% reminding traders that uptrends do not progress monotonically. The market delivered occasional sharp intraday moves including a largest single-bar move of 5.6%, moments that separated disciplined followers of the trend from those who reacted to short-term volatility. Across the 122-bar span, participants encountered 21 decision points including 7 critical junctures where directional bias faced its sternest examination.
This replay teaches that process discipline matters more than prediction in trending agricultural markets. The 6.1% drawdown tests whether a participant will abandon a sound thesis under temporary pressure, while the 5.6% single-bar spikes reward those who distinguish noise from signal. Psychological resilience becomes the decisive edge: maintaining position sizing integrity and not over-reacting to normal volatility separates effective training from reactive trading. The scenario ultimately reinforces that historical context shapes how we interpret present price action, making market replay an invaluable tool for developing decision-making frameworks that serve across varied market conditions.
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