Soybean Meal Historical Replay: 2004-06 to 2004-09
Replay 64 daily bars of a 2004 soybean meal super-cycle collapse, where prices fell 47.7% from peak to trough. Step through each authentic trading day, confront 11 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your choices in this simulated training scenario.
64 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2004-06 to 2004-09 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 91 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 53.8% and a 17.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −53.8%
- Max run-up
- +17.5%
- Duration
- 91 days
- Largest single-day move
- −10.8%
- Bars
- 64 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the summer of 2004, the Chinese soybean meal market was experiencing the tail end of a commodities super-cycle that had drawn significant capital into agricultural futures. The period from late June to late September 2004 represented a critical test for traders who had ridden the prior bull wave. This replay offers 64 daily bars of authentic market data, placing participants directly into the decision-making crucible of a sustained price collapse where every trading day mattered and positions faced constant pressure.
The numbers tell a stark story: prices fell 47.7% over the span, plummeting from 304.6 to 159.4. The maximum drawdown reached 53.8%, meaning peak-to-trough losses were even harsher than the total decline. The largest single-bar move of 10.8% signals sessions of violent intraday reversals that could amplify losses or test stop-discipline. Across the replay, 11 decision points await—4 marked as critical moments where directional conviction or risk adjustment could mean the difference between compounding losses or preserving capital.
This scenario strips away theoretical models and forces direct confrontation with the mathematics of a market unwinding. The 53.8% peak-to-trough decline illustrates how devastating losses accumulate when position sizing and exit discipline break down. Each critical decision point tests whether a trader can maintain process over panic. The educational value lies not in predicting reversals but in building the emotional regulation and systematic approach necessary to navigate extreme volatility without abandoning sound risk management principles.
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