Wheat Historical Replay: 2004-05 to 2004-08
Relive a wild wheat quarter where prices slid 20.8% over 66 daily bars, peaking with a 7.3% single-day swing. Step through each trading day, tackle 12 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
66 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2004-05 to 2004-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 96 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 21.7% and a 9.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −21.7%
- Max run-up
- +9.7%
- Duration
- 96 days
- Largest single-day move
- +7.3%
- Bars
- 66 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the spring of 2004, the wheat market entered a period of intense pressure as commodity markets worldwide grappled with shifting supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic uncertainty. Over 66 trading days spanning from May 5 to August 9, 2004, traders and analysts faced a steep downhill battle in grain futures. This replay places you in the thick of a market where the prevailing sentiment was being tested daily, and every decision carried significant consequences for portfolio performance.
The numbers tell a stark story. Wheat prices declined from 399 to 316, representing a cumulative loss of 20.8%. The journey was far from smooth, with a maximum drawdown of 21.7% testing the resolve of anyone holding long positions. Most dramatically, traders had to contend with a largest single-bar move of 7.3%, a spike that could wipe out weeks of careful position sizing in a single session. Across this quarter, you will encounter 12 decision points, with 4 marked as critical moments where the margin between capital preservation and significant loss was razor thin.
This replay is designed to sharpen your decision-making under pressure. The sustained downtrend forces you to practice disciplined risk management, as letting losses run unchecked would have been catastrophic given the 21.7% drawdown. The volatile single-day swings teach the importance of position sizing and stop-loss discipline. Psychologically, navigating a declining market where every bounce looks like a reversal tests your ability to distinguish between hope and rational analysis. By replaying these 66 bars and confronting each of the 12 decision points, you develop the emotional resilience and systematic approach needed to survive—and adapt—when market conditions turn hostile.
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