Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2023-04 to 2023-07
Replay 62 trading days of US hot-rolled coil from April to July 2023, capturing a 7.7% decline. Step through each daily bar, face 11 decision points including 4 critical ones, and receive AI coach feedback in a simulated environment.
62 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2023-04 to 2023-07 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 94 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 13.3% and a 10.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −13.3%
- Max run-up
- +10.4%
- Duration
- 94 days
- Largest single-day move
- +3.7%
- Bars
- 62 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The US hot-rolled coil market entered a volatile period in spring 2023, a moment when ferrous commodities faced shifting industrial demand and macroeconomic uncertainty. Over the next three months, traders and analysts would confront a sustained downtrend that tested their ability to read momentum, manage risk, and make decisions under pressure. This replay drops participants into that environment—62 trading days of daily bars where the direction was anything but clear.
The numbers tell a story of grinding decline: prices fell from 4072 to 3757, a 7.7% loss over the data span. The journey was rougher than the endpoint suggests, with a maximum drawdown of 13.3% and a largest single-bar move of 3.7%. Participants faced 11 decision points across the replay, four of them critical inflection moments where the next move mattered enormously. The 2020s context shaped every tick.
For decision training, this scenario sharpens three muscles: process discipline when the trend works against you, risk calibration in the face of drawdown, and psychological steadiness when each bar feels consequential. The critical decision points reveal whether a participant reacts or responds—and that distinction defines long-term performance in volatile markets.