Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2019-08 to 2019-11
A 58-day historical replay of US hot-rolled coil from August 2019 captures an 11.8% drawdown as trade tensions escalated. You step through each daily bar, weigh 11 critical decision points, and receive AI coach feedback on every simulated choice.
58 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2019-08 to 2019-11 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 89 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 11.8% and a 7.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −11.8%
- Max run-up
- +7.4%
- Duration
- 89 days
- Largest single-day move
- −4.4%
- Bars
- 58 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay captures the US hot-rolled coil steel market during the summer of 2019, a period when trade tensions between the United States and China intensified sharply. Hot-rolled coil is a fundamental steel product used in construction, automotive, and manufacturing supply chains, making it highly sensitive to both industrial demand and trade policy shifts. Market participants faced an environment where escalating tariffs threatened to disrupt global supply chains and depress demand, creating profound uncertainty about the near-term outlook for one of the world's most traded steel products.
Between August 23 and November 20, 2019, hot-rolled coil prices declined from 3724 to 3529, representing a -5.2% drop over 58 trading days. The market experienced extreme volatility, with the maximum drawdown reaching 11.8% and individual daily swings of 4.4%. This combination of persistent downward pressure and sharp intraday moves created a challenging environment for position management, forcing participants to navigate both directional risk and rapid sentiment shifts.
This scenario distills 11 decision points across the period, with 4 identified as critical junctures where directional conviction and risk management intersected. For decision training, the value lies in practicing how to maintain discipline when positions move against you, how to size exposure appropriately for volatile regimes, and how to manage the psychological friction of sustained drawdowns. The interplay between fundamental trade-policy developments and price action creates a realistic sandbox for honing the processes that separate methodical traders from reactive ones.