Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2019-08 to 2019-11
Replay 68 daily bars of heating oil from August to November 2019 as trade-war fears drove a 10.6% drawdown. Step through each session, weigh 12 decision points including 4 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2019-08 to 2019-11 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 94 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 10.6% and a 16.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −10.6%
- Max run-up
- +16.2%
- Duration
- 94 days
- Largest single-day move
- +10.6%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The heating oil market entered a turbulent stretch from August to November 2019 as trade-war tensions between the United States and major economies injected uncertainty into energy markets. Over 68 daily trading sessions, participants navigated shifting sentiment while managing exposure to a commodity sensitive to both economic outlook and seasonal demand patterns. The stakes were clear: misunderstanding the interplay between geopolitical risk and energy fundamentals could mean significant capital erosion.
The period delivered on its volatile reputation. From a closing price of 1.85, heating oil eventually settled at 1.93, representing a modest 4.3% net gain over the full span. Yet that headline number obscured the true journey. A maximum drawdown of 10.6% tested portfolio resilience, with the largest single-bar move matching that same 10.6% figure, underscoring how quickly sentiment could shift within a single session. Traders faced 12 distinct decision points across the replay, four of which carried critical weight for outcomes.
This replay ultimately measures not profit but process. Participants must confront how they respond when a position moves sharply against them overnight, whether they hold through widening drawdowns or exit prematurely, and how geopolitical headlines color judgment of technical signals. The 4.3% net outcome becomes secondary to understanding whether decision-making under pressure aligns with a disciplined, pre-defined framework. Risk management, emotional regulation, and the willingness to revisit assumptions form the lasting takeaways from this trade-war era exercise.