San Francisco Historical Replay: 2021-12 to 2024-05
Replay 30 monthly bars of San Francisco housing from 2021-12 to 2024-05, capturing a 17.2% peak-to-trough drawdown. You walk through each decision point and receive an AI coach review of your choices in this simulated, educational market replay.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2021-12 to 2024-05 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 17.2% with a 14.0% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −17.2%
- Max run-up
- +14.0%
- Largest single-month move
- −4.3%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In late 2021, San Francisco's housing market sat at a crossroads. The Federal Reserve was preparing to pivot toward aggressive rate hikes in 2022, a development that would fundamentally reshape mortgage economics across the United States. Participants in this replay face the challenge of navigating 30 monthly bars from 2021-12 to 2024-05, a span that captures a complete mini-cycle in one of America's most volatile metro property markets. With six decision points—two of them critical—every entry and exit carries weight.
The numbers tell a nuanced story. The index climbed from 345.38 to 365.86, delivering a modest 5.9% gain over the full period. Yet this headline figure conceals a more turbulent journey: a peak-to-trough drawdown of 17.2% and a largest single-bar move of 4.3%. For those who entered near the 2022 peak, the subsequent compression tested conviction and risk management in equal measure. The market's path was neither a straight line upward nor a crash—instead, it was a grinding reversal followed by a gradual recovery.
The replay's value lies in training decision-makers to focus on process rather than prediction. Navigating a 17.2% drawdown without abandoning a sound strategy requires clear frameworks for position sizing and conviction-based reallocation. Decision points force learners to confront the tension between chasing momentum and respecting mean-reversion signals. The psychological dimension is equally important: the largest single-bar move of 4.3% reminds us that market inflection moments often arrive suddenly, demanding disciplined pre-commitment to exit criteria. This is why the two critical decision points carry such weight—they separate those who react from those who execute.
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