San Francisco Historical Replay: 2021-11 to 2024-04
Replay San Francisco's property cycle across 30 monthly bars from 2021-11 to 2024-04, including a 17.2% drawdown. You make timing and conviction calls at six decision points, then receive an AI coach review of how your simulated decisions tracked the historical path.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2021-11 to 2024-04 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 17.2% with a 15.0% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −17.2%
- Max run-up
- +15.0%
- Largest single-month move
- −4.3%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay immerses you in San Francisco's residential property market across 30 monthly bars spanning 2021-11 to 2024-04. This was a pivotal period when the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive rate-hiking cycle that directly challenged the sky-high valuations of America's most expensive housing market. As a player, you faced a tech-heavy economy highly sensitive to monetary policy shifts, where every rate decision could cascade into demand destruction. The stakes were clear: navigate a once-in-a-generation turning point in one of the world's most scrutinized real estate markets.
The numbers tell a story of deceptive calm. The index closed at 362.76, up 5.9% from its starting point of 342.47, suggesting modest appreciation. Yet this flattering headline obscures the turbulence beneath. The market endured a maximum drawdown of 17.2%, with individual monthly bars swinging as much as 4.3%. A player entering near the cycle peak would have watched paper losses accumulate for months before any recovery materialized. The six decision points, two flagged as critical, forced choices with incomplete information in real time.
For decision training, this scenario exposes the gap between knowing macro trends and executing under pressure. Recognizing that rising rates threaten housing affordability is easy in hindsight; the challenge lies in timing conviction calls when the data remains ambiguous. A 17.2% drawdown tests emotional discipline: will you hold your position or capitulate? The gap between peak-to-trough and final outcome illustrates how patience, combined with disciplined position sizing, can transform a seemingly catastrophic drawdown into a manageable learning experience rather than a portfolio-ending event.
Featured in the archive