San Francisco Historical Replay: 2020-02 to 2022-07
Replay San Francisco property markets across 30 monthly bars from 2020-02 to 2022-07, capturing a 39.4% climb with just 4.8% max drawdown. Make decisions at 6 points including 2 critical, get AI coach review, and learn through simulated capital only.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2020-02 to 2022-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 4.8% with a 46.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −4.8%
- Max run-up
- +46.5%
- Largest single-month move
- +4.2%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
San Francisco's residential property market entered a historic stress test in early 2020. Over 30 monthly bars spanning from February 2020 to July 2022, participants navigate one of the most volatile periods in recent Bay Area real estate history. The scenario captures the post-pandemic boom, supply chain disruptions, and shifting monetary policy that reshaped urban property valuations. Six decision points—including two critical junctures—force participants to confront uncertainty with incomplete information, mirroring the actual challenges faced by investors during this era.
The market delivered a 39.4% total return, climbing from 268.86 to 374.79 over the period. Remarkably, this strong performance came with contained downside—the maximum drawdown was just 4.8%, and the largest single monthly move reached only 4.2%. These metrics paint a picture of sustained appreciation with brief, shallow pullbacks rather than dramatic crashes. Participants experience the texture of a market that rewarded patience while testing conviction at every turn.
This replay teaches that managing drawdown is as important as capturing upside. The 4.8% maximum drawdown demonstrates how real estate can behave defensively within a portfolio, yet participants still face meaningful selection and timing decisions that introduce variance. The 4.2% largest single-bar move reminds us that even "calm" markets produce volatility that can test psychological resilience. Decision training here focuses on process over prediction—learning to size positions, respect stop-loss logic, and avoid recency bias when the trend has been consistently positive.