San Francisco Historical Replay: 2020-11 to 2023-04
Replay 30 months of San Francisco property history from 2020-11 to 2023-04, capturing a 19.6% climb and a 17.2% drawdown. Step through each monthly bar, make choices at 6 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your reasoning, all in a simulated educational environment.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2020-11 to 2023-04 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 17.2% with a 35.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −17.2%
- Max run-up
- +35.9%
- Largest single-month move
- −4.3%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
San Francisco's property market entered a critical phase in late 2020, as the city emerged from pandemic disruptions amid unprecedented monetary stimulus. Ultra-low interest rates had restructured the economic landscape, creating both opportunity and uncertainty. Participants faced the challenge of navigating a market where historical precedents offered limited guidance, yet the stakes for capital allocation decisions were substantial.
The 30-month journey from November 2020 through April 2023 tested every assumption. An opening valuation of 289.89 ultimately closed at 346.62, delivering a 19.6% return. Yet this outcome was far from linear—participants endured a maximum drawdown of 17.2% and confronted the largest single monthly swing of 4.3%. Six decision points punctuated this period, with two emerging as particularly consequential moments where strategic choices could diverge significantly from the path that produced the final outcome.
This replay illustrates how disciplined decision frameworks prove essential when confronting extended volatility. The 17.2% drawdown demonstrates that temporary losses are inevitable even within markets delivering positive cumulative returns. Participants must develop psychological resilience to maintain strategic focus during adverse periods, while remaining alert to critical inflection points that can substantially alter outcomes. The simulation emphasizes that sound process consistently outweighs predictions about future market direction.
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