Phoenix Historical Replay: 2011-03 to 2013-08
Replay a 30-month Phoenix housing rebound from 100.27 to 141.47 between 2011-03 and 2013-08. You walk through each month, face six decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2011-03 to 2013-08 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.5% with a 41.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.5%
- Max run-up
- +41.2%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.7%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Phoenix in early 2011 was still absorbing the wreckage of the housing crash, yet the seeds of recovery were quietly germinating. Over the next 30 months, the city's housing index climbed steadily from 100.27 to 141.47, a gain of 41.1%. The market was not exploding upward; it was grinding higher with unusual calm—maximum drawdown held to just 0.5% and the largest single monthly move topped out at 2.7%. Six decision points, including two the framework designates as critical, forced participants to confront the tension between anchoring to recent pain and sensing an emerging uptrend. What was at stake was not merely profit or loss, but the ability to distinguish a sustainable recovery from a dead-cat bounce.
The data reveals a rebound characterized more by consistency than fireworks. A 41.1% advance spread across 30 monthly bars implies an average monthly return that sounds modest on paper. The true test came from the psychological terrain: after years of collapse, each uptick invited skepticism. Participants who over-weighted recent trauma likely second-guessed entries; those who waited for certainty missed the early stages. The tight max drawdown of 0.5% underscores that volatility itself was not the primary risk—decision paralysis was.
This replay trains participants on three fronts. Process-wise, it demands disciplined monthly reviews rather than reactive swings. Risk-wise, the near-zero drawdown is a reminder that in early recoveries, the danger is often being too cautious rather than too aggressive. Psychologically, the Phoenix rebound illustrates how markets can offer high-probability, moderate-reward setups when consensus remains scarred—yet acting on them requires overriding loss-aversion. The two critical decision points serve as pressure valves where prior assumptions must be tested against incoming data.
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