San Francisco Historical Replay: 2011-03 to 2013-08
Replay San Francisco's 2011–2013 housing rebound across 30 monthly bars where prices climbed 37.5%. Step through each authentic day, face six decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2011-03 to 2013-08 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 7.9% with a 43.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −7.9%
- Max run-up
- +43.2%
- Largest single-month move
- +4.9%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
San Francisco's housing market in early 2011 was still emerging from the shadow of the subprime crisis. Prices had collapsed from their peaks, and uncertainty gripped both buyers and sellers. The city faced a pivotal question: would housing prices continue their decline or begin a recovery? For anyone replaying this period, the stakes were clear—understanding how markets transition from trough to rebound would test one's ability to read early signals amid lingering doubt.
The replay spans 30 monthly bars from March 2011 to August 2013, tracing an overall climb of 37.5%. Prices rose from 129.83 to 178.53 as confidence gradually returned to the market. Yet the journey was not a straight line upward—the largest single-month move reached 4.9%, and the maximum drawdown along the way hit 7.9%. Six decision points are embedded in the data, with two flagged as critical moments where different choices could have altered outcomes.
This scenario trains you to manage conviction versus caution in a market that refuses to move in a straight line. The 7.9% drawdown reminds us that even during recoveries, positions can face meaningful setbacks—and the 4.9% single-bar volatility shows how quickly sentiment can shift. The two critical decision points force you to weigh whether apparent reversals are genuine turning points or noise. Process matters more than prediction here: learning to adjust position sizing, set realistic expectations, and maintain discipline when the path is unclear is what builds durable decision-making under uncertainty.
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