US 10-City Composite Historical Replay: 2011-03 to 2013-08
Replay the US 10-city housing rebound across 30 monthly bars from March 2011, navigating a 3.2% drawdown and 2.0% single-bar swings. Decide step by step at six checkpoints, then review your reasoning with an AI coach in a simulated, educational environment.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2011-03 to 2013-08 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 3.2% with a 17.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −3.2%
- Max run-up
- +17.6%
- Largest single-month move
- +2.0%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the spring of 2011, the US housing market was climbing out of its deepest trough in decades. After the subprime crash reshaped entire city economies, a fragile recovery had begun. Investors and analysts watched monthly price data for ten key metropolitan indices, wondering whether the tentative uptick was the start of a genuine rebound or another dead cat bounce in a still-oversupplied market. The stakes were high: a wrong read could mean chasing a rally that had no legs, or sitting on the sidelines while a once‑in‑a‑generation recovery unfolded.
The scenario spans 30 monthly bars from March 2011 through August 2013. Over that stretch, the composite index rose from 154.03 to 175.58, a 14.0% gain that confirmed a sustained recovery was underway. Yet the path was far from smooth. The largest single monthly swing reached 2.0%, and the maximum drawdown measured 3.2%, testing the resolve of anyone who entered the market during those uncertain years. Six decision checkpoints punctuated the replay, two of them flagged as critical moments where positioning choices carried outsized consequences for outcomes.
This replay trains participants to navigate recovery‑phase markets where optimism wars with lingering doubt. The key lesson is process discipline: a 3.2% drawdown is small by crisis standards, yet it feels large when confidence is fragile. A 2.0% single‑bar move can easily trigger panic selling or reckless averaging down. The six checkpoints force deliberate, step‑by‑step assessment rather than passive buy‑and‑hold thinking, sharpening the habit of updating views with new data while maintaining risk limits that survive volatility spikes.
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