Phoenix Historical Replay: 2004-06 to 2006-11
Relive Phoenix housing from June 2004 to November 2006, when the Case-Shiller index climbed 66.5% before reversing. You replay each monthly bar, tackle six decision points including two critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-06 to 2006-11 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 1.9% with a 69.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −1.9%
- Max run-up
- +69.7%
- Largest single-month move
- +4.9%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the summer of 2004, Phoenix was the epicenter of a housing fever that would grip the American Southwest for the next two years. The city's residential market had entered a phase of extraordinary appreciation, drawing buyers, speculators, and lenders into an ecosystem where caution seemed obsolete. The Case-Shiller index was climbing, employment was expanding, and a narrative of permanent appreciation had taken hold. This replay places you inside 30 monthly bars across a period where six decision nodes would test whether you could distinguish momentum from mania.
From June 2004 to November 2006, the Case-Shiller index for Phoenix rose from 134 to 223.13, a gain of 66.5% over 30 monthly bars. What is striking is the smoothness of the ascent: the maximum drawdown across the entire period was just 1.9%, and the largest single monthly move was only 4.9%. There were no violent reversals, no obvious warnings, no dramatic crashes to signal that the end was near. The market simply climbed, and climbed, before reversing.
This scenario trains the hardest skill in markets: acting on a deteriorating process before it becomes an obvious crisis. The low volatility, the steady gains, and the absence of any single alarming bar create a psychological environment where exiting feels like leaving money on the table. The two critical decision points are designed to pressure-test your discipline, forcing you to confront the question of what "evidence" actually means when the numbers look benign. The lesson is not that Phoenix was destined to crash, but that process and risk management must function independently of recent price history.