US 20-City Composite Historical Replay: 2004-06 to 2006-11
Replay the U.S. 20-city composite from June 2004 to November 2006 across 30 monthly bars as the index climbed 24.2%. You step through each authentic decision point and receive an AI coach review, with simulated capital only for education.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2004-06 to 2006-11 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 0.9% with a 25.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −0.9%
- Max run-up
- +25.3%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.6%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The U.S. 20-city composite index stands at a pivotal moment in the 2000s real estate era. Between June 2004 and November 2006, 30 monthly bars capture a market that appears deceptively steady even as systemic risks accumulate beneath the surface. Six decision points—two marked as critical—distribute across this span, each offering a window into how market participants might navigate an environment where consensus optimism surrounds an asset class that many believe cannot fall. The educational stakes are high: this is not about predicting a crash that has already happened, but about understanding how judgment becomes impaired when volatility remains suppressed and prices grind steadily upward.
The numbers tell a story of apparent stability. The index climbed from 164.82 to 204.65, delivering a 24.2% return over 30 months. Yet this climb occurred with a maximum drawdown of just 0.9% and a largest single-bar move of only 1.6%. These figures reveal a market characterized by unusually tight ranges and minimal daily disruption. For most of this period, any single monthly bar offered little reason for alarm—the largest monthly movement barely exceeded 1.6%. The consistency of returns masked growing imbalances that would later become apparent.
This replay trains participants to recognize the psychological trap of sustained stability. When drawdowns remain negligible and price action remains calm, the brain naturally lowers its estimate of risk. The critical lesson is not to confuse low volatility with low risk, nor to assume that a rising market confirms the soundness of any particular position. Participants learn to interrogate their own decision-making process, examining whether they are responding to market data or simply following the crowd's conviction during a period that, in hindsight, represented the final chapter of an extraordinary cycle.